The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has issued a warning over the likely return of El Niño, saying the climate phenomenon could trigger severe weather conditions across different parts of the world in the months ahead.
In its latest El Niño/La Niña Update released in Geneva, Switzerland, the United Nations weather agency indicated there is an 80 per cent chance that El Niño will develop between June and August 2026.
The likelihood of the event continuing through November is estimated at more than 90 per cent.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern linked to rising global temperatures and major shifts in weather conditions.
Its effects often include intense rainfall and flooding in some regions, while others experience prolonged dry spells, drought and extreme heat.
In Kenya, El Niño has historically been associated with increased rainfall, particularly during the short-rains season, raising concerns about possible flooding in vulnerable areas.
According to the WMO, the developing conditions are being driven by unusually warm waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
The agency noted that forecasts point to above-normal temperatures across much of the world between June and August.
“Warm ocean waters are fueling the development of El Niño. El Niño typically increases global temperatures and drives more extreme weather and rainfall patterns, and above-average temperatures are forecast nearly everywhere for June to August,” WMO said in a statement.
The organisation reported that measurements taken between late April and mid-May showed sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific nearing levels commonly associated with El Niño events.
Scientists have also detected significantly warmer-than-normal temperatures beneath the ocean surface, with some areas recording readings more than six degrees Celsius above average.
Experts say this stored heat is contributing to the warming of surface waters and increasing the likelihood of El Niño formation.
Climate experts have warned that the expected weather pattern could intensify the impacts of global warming and place additional pressure on communities already facing climate-related challenges.
“El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed,”it added.
The warning was accompanied by calls for stronger climate adaptation measures, including investment in renewable energy, improved protection for at-risk populations and wider implementation of early warning systems.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo urged governments and communities to prepare for the possible effects of the phenomenon.
“We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event, which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean,” Saulo said.
The latest forecast comes as countries around the world continue to grapple with the growing effects of climate change, with meteorologists closely monitoring developments in the Pacific Ocean ahead of the second half of the year.
