Retired Chief Justice David Maraga, have accused the government of failing to prepare for what experts have forecast as an exceptionally severe El Nino season expected to begin in October 2026.
In a statement issued on Tuesday, Maraga warned that the country was “sleepwalking into a predictable climate disaster” despite warnings from climate scientists that Kenya could experience one of its most intense rainfall seasons in over a century.
According to Maraga, the Kenya Meteorological Department, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) have projected an extreme El Nino event, dubbed the “Godzilla El Niño,” with an estimated 80 percent probability of affecting the region from October 2026 into early 2027.
“The Kenya Meteorological Department, the World Meteorological Organization, and the regional climate authority, ICPAC, have all warned that Kenya will experience the most extreme El Niño rain season in 150 years,” Maraga stated.
He further noted that the United Nations has identified Kenya among 22 countries facing the highest humanitarian risk from the anticipated weather event and has launched a $202 million appeal to support approximately 8.8 million vulnerable people.
He also expressed concern that, despite the forecasts, there is little evidence of comprehensive government contingency planning.
“This year’s forecast predicts worse rains than the historic 1997 El Niño. Yet, despite the alarm sounded by the experts there is no visible contingency preparation by the government to mitigate the looming disaster,” he observed.
He highlighted several sectors it believes face significant risk if preparations are not undertaken immediately. He warned that prolonged rainfall could destroy unharvested maize in Western Kenya and the North Rift through rotting, sprouting, and aflatoxin contamination, threatening national food security and creating opportunities for what it described as corrupt grain import schemes.
Maraga also cited the likelihood of widespread flooding along major river basins, including the Tana, Athi, Ewaso Nyiro, Rift Valley, and Lake Victoria catchments. Counties such as Homa Bay, Kisumu, Nakuru, West Pokot, Elgeyo Marakwet, and Murang’a were identified as areas vulnerable to flooding and landslides, with roads, bridges, schools, and markets at risk of damage.
On public health, the former Chief Justice warned that flooding could compromise water and sanitation infrastructure, increasing the likelihood of outbreaks of cholera, typhoid, and malaria, particularly in informal settlements and marginalized rural communities.
Maraga criticized what he described as a pattern of reactive disaster management, arguing that emergency interventions often occur only after lives and property have already been lost.
“The State cannot wait for floods, landslides and disease outbreaks before responding,” he said, calling for proactive planning rather than emergency measures after disasters occur.
Among the measures proposed by Marga are the immediate deployment of government-supported mobile grain dryers and mechanical harvesters to agricultural regions, expedited release of county disaster mitigation funds, stockpiling of essential medical supplies, and publication of evacuation and relocation plans for communities living in flood-prone and landslide-prone areas.
He called for Parliament to urgently adopt and implement the Ukombozi Petition, which it says would mobilize unemployed youth to undertake public works such as clearing drainage systems, reinforcing riverbanks, constructing water-harvesting pans, and rehabilitating local infrastructure before the anticipated rains.
“At the heart of this effort must be the urgent passage and implementation of the Ukombozi Petition presented to Parliament, which provides a framework to mobilise millions of unemployed young people for the mass manual labour required—digging drainages, strengthening riverbanks, building water-harvesting pans, and restoring local infrastructure—to get the country ready before the El Niño strikes,” he said.
In addition, Maraga proposed the creation of 500,000 decentralized water-harvesting pans in arid and semi-arid areas and the harvesting of excess water from Mt. Kenya and the Aberdare ranges through solar-powered community-based storage systems.
The former Chief Justice concluded by urging citizens to hold public officials accountable for any preventable deaths, destruction of infrastructure, crop losses, or disease outbreaks resulting from inadequate preparedness.
He further warned against the misuse of public funds allocated for disaster mitigation, saying any attempts to exploit the anticipated emergency for personal or political gain should be investigated and those responsible held accountable.
